Duterte headed for a decisive win based on three final pre-election polls
Barring any unforeseen circumstances and unless all major polling firms did their surveys wrong, seven-term Davao City Mayor Rodrigo Duterte is set to win the presidential elections to be held this Monday, May 9.
His margin of victory may not be as huge as Joseph Estrada’s in 1998 or Noynoy Aquino’s in 2010, but it certainly would be more decisive than Fidel Ramos in 1992 or Gloria Arroyo in 2004. Below is a rundown of the final batch of pre-election surveys conducted by three top polling firms:
Pulse Asia/ABS-CBN (conducted April 26 to 29, released May 3)
Duterte – 33%
Roxas – 22%
Poe – 21%
Binay – 17%
Santiago – 2%
Laylo/The Standard (conducted April 27 to May 1, released May 5)
Duterte – 32.4%
Poe – 25%
Roxas – 22%
Binay – 15%
Santiago – 2.4%
Social Weather Stations (conducted May 1 to 3, released May 6)
Duterte – 33%
Poe – 22%
Roxas – 20%
Binay – 13%
Santiago – 2%
Here are some takeaways from the three final survey results:
1) Based on the graph provided by Business World, it can be noted that between January to May 2016, all of Duterte’s opponents lost ground: Poe slipped from 24 to 22%, Roxas declined from 21 to 20%, Binay collapsed from 31 to 13%, while Santiago remained stuck between 2 to 4%. It can be surmised that while Duterte siphoned voters that were previously leaning for other candidates, it is Binay who apparently suffered the most defections.
2) April has been a very bad month for Duterte in terms of bad publicity. There’s the flak he received over his rape joke, allegations of undeclared wealth, as well as a barrage of negative coverage from local and international media outlets. Despite all these, Duterte’s supporters remained with him – making him comparable to a Teflon where nothing seems to stick.
3) As stated above, unless there’s a totally game-changing event over the next three days like Duterte getting assassinated or someone between Poe and Roxas suddenly withdrawing, there’s a huge certainty as to who the next president will be.
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