Two big reasons why the Philippines might not achieve herd immunity by early 2022

The World Health Organization (WHO) defines “herd immunity” as the indirect protection from an infectious disease like COVID-19 that happens when a population is immune either through vaccination or immunity developed through previous infection. The WHO underscored that achieving herd immunity through mass vaccinations is the only acceptable way to go.

The WHO has not prescribed a specific figure that will signify that herd immunity has been achieved, because “it (herd immunity threshold) will likely vary according to the community, the vaccine, the populations prioritized for vaccination, and other factors.”

Nevertheless, national media outlets has followed the lead of Health Secretary Francisco Duque, Jr. in putting at 70% of the current Philippine population. The 2020 national census revealed that there are now 109 million Filipinos, and 70% of that is 76 million.

According to number crunchers on social media like Edson Guido of ABS-CBN News and the people behind Herd Immunity PH, the Philippines can achieve herd immunity by March 2022 based on the ramped-up vaccination effort across the country. However, to borrow a term from economics, it must be understood that their estimate is based on a concept from economics called “ceteris paribus” – or “all things held constant.”

herd immunity philippines 80 percent — The World Health Organization has reiterated that the only acceptable way to achieve herd immunity is through vaccinations (Photo credits: www.who.int)

For example, because of the rampage of the much more contagious delta variant of COVID-19 around the world, the United States-based Becker Hospital Review has estimated that the herd immunity threshold is now at 80%. If that’s the case, the Philippine government will now have to target 88 million Filipinos for vaccinations.

Here’s another thing: We don’t know yet for sure how long the protection offered by the COVID-19 vaccine will last! For instance, if you received a vaccine with low efficacy rate like SINOVAC (and that includes this writer), it is possible that by March 2022, the protection it provided has already waned off. Quoting a study conducted by Chinese researchers, Reuters reported that antibodies from SINOVAC fade after just six months! Hence, there’s already a need to have a booster shot.

Given these two circumstances, it means that the current estimated date as to when the Philippines can achieve herd immunity might be too optimistic. Nevertheless, the government can still take two critical course of actions:

1) Speed up the procurement, distribution, and administration of vaccines to the extent that it can control

2) Offer booster shots to the most vulnerable population groups and those that received Sinovac

About Author

Mark Pere Madrona

The Filipino Scribe (TFS) is managed by Mark Pere Madrona, a multi-awarded writer and licensed professional teacher from the Philippines.

Mr. Madrona earned his master’s degree in history from the University of the Philippines-Diliman last 2020. He obtained his bachelor’s degree in journalism cum laude from the same university back in 2010. His area of interests includes Philippine journalism, history, and politics as well as social media.

Know more about him here: https://www.filipinoscribe.com/about/.

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